Driving Through Uncertainty: MNA’s Economic Outlook for Trucking Leaders

September 2025

On September 11, 2025, MNA CEO John Nelson led two identical presentations at the Iowa Motor Truck Association (IMTA) Management Conference, "Time to Shift," engaging approximately 100 attendees in the morning session and 30 in the afternoon. Drawing from MNA's deep expertise, Nelson addressed “Driving Through Uncertainty,” sharing data-centric insights into the state of the U.S. economy, freight markets, and what lies ahead for the trucking sector.

Key elements of his briefing included:

• Real-time analysis of GDP trends, where Q3 growth surprised on the upside, expanding more than many expert forecasts predicted.

• The Federal Reserve’s evolving monetary policy, with possible interest rate cuts looming amid concerns about stagflation, rising inflation, and a complex labor landscape for the transport sector.

• Critical supply chain and inventory challenges, including an analysis of consumer spending patterns, manufacturing forecasts, and the ongoing “K-shaped” economic recovery affecting both upper- and lower-income households.

• A deep dive into trucking-specific indicators—retail sales, industrial forecasts, and leading risks such as input cost volatility, credit condition shifts, and technology adoption including artificial intelligence.

Nelson concluded by equipping leaders with actionable principles: remain nimble, leverage smart data, and keep strategic options open as volatility endures. Feedback from IMTA conference participants emphasized the value of Nelson’s ability to tie complex national trends directly to operational and strategic decisions in trucking.